Bitcoin faces a potential sideways trading pattern in November as macroeconomic uncertainty clouds the market outlook, Bitfinex analysts report. Despite November’s historical reputation as a strong month for Bitcoin, current conditions suggest consolidation rather than significant price gains.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks introduced uncertainty about upcoming rate cuts, diminishing market optimism. The probability of a Fed rate cut in December now stands at 67.9%, down from near 90% in prior months, according to CME FedWatch Tool data.
Macro Conditions Weigh on Bitcoin Price Movements
Bitfinex’s Tuesday markets report emphasized that easing policy combined with mixed Fed communications supports a consolidation phase, seen as necessary before volatility resumes. The analysts noted that Bitcoin bulls may lose patience if prices fail to reclaim the $116,000 range, citing ongoing sales by long-term holders as a sign of waning conviction.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $103,000, reflecting an 11.09% decline over the past 30 days and nearly 3% drop in the last 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.
Fed Rate Cut Odds and Market Impact
Fed rate cuts historically encourage risk-on behavior, benefiting assets like Bitcoin as investors move away from safer investments such as bonds and term deposits. However, the recent reduction in rate cut odds may pressure crypto markets if expectations shift towards a Fed pause or tightening.
Historical November Gains and Diverging Analyst Views
Since 2013, November has been Bitcoin’s strongest month, averaging gains of 41.78%, per CoinGlass data. Some traders remain optimistic that this trend will continue.
- Dave Weisberger, a crypto trader, highlighted Bitcoin’s strong fundamentals and noted that current market context is constructive compared to previous cycles.
- Crypto analyst Carl Runefelt predicted that “November will turn green again for Bitcoin soon,” expecting large upward price movements.
- Trader AshCrypto expressed continued bullish sentiment despite recent volatility.
However, Bitcoin has struggled to sustain momentum after peaking at an all-time high of $125,100 in early October. The market experienced a significant crash on October 10 that eliminated approximately $19 billion in leveraged crypto positions.
While November traditionally brings notable Bitcoin gains, prevailing macroeconomic uncertainties and shifting Fed expectations point to a possible consolidation phase this month. Market participants will closely watch whether Bitcoin can reclaim critical price levels to sustain bullish momentum.
