Bitcoin has surged nearly 8% since the start of 2026, reaching a six-week high near $95,000. Despite this upward move, market data suggests traders remain cautious amid mixed signals from derivatives and spot markets.
The cryptocurrency’s price hit $94,420 on Monday, up from $87,611 at the beginning of the year, according to CoinGecko. However, key indicators such as open interest and order book dynamics indicate a tentative rally.
Bitcoin Price and Market Positioning
Bitcoin’s aggregated open interest in perpetual contracts holds steady around $31.4 billion, a 34% decline from the $47.8 billion peak seen in October, according to CryptoQuant data. This flat positioning points to limited new speculative bets despite the price rise.
Order book analysis reveals a seller-dominated environment. CoinGlass data shows an ask-skewed order book at 5% and 10% depth from the current price, indicating more sell orders than buy orders. Additionally, the Coinbase Premium indicator remains largely negative, signaling weak spot demand from U.S. investors.
Options Market Signals
The options market presents a slightly more optimistic outlook. The 7-day 25-delta skew, which measures the premium for downside protection, recently turned positive. This shift implies a reduced need for bearish hedge positions amid the price recovery. The 30-day skew remains negative but is approaching neutral territory, per Deribit data.
Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital noted increased constructive positioning on the options front, highlighting a reduction in put skew across all tenors and the purchase of more than 3,000 contracts for $100,000 calls expiring Jan. 30, 2026. Still, analysts caution that much of this demand stems from strategies betting on volatility rather than strong directional conviction.
Market Drivers and Analyst Insights
Bitcoin’s recent rebound appears partly driven by short-covering, as traders close bearish positions rather than initiate new long bets. Institutional demand has supported the market, with strong ETF inflows in January and expanded access on major wealth platforms.
Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets, told Decrypt that seasonal trends, such as the momentum carried over from the Santa rally, and generally supportive liquidity conditions have contributed to the positive price action.
However, Lucas advises caution, recommending that traders monitor key support levels at $92,000 and $90,000, especially if ETF inflows slow or macroeconomic factors become more restrictive. She emphasized that any sustained move above $95,000 requires strong volume; otherwise, profit-taking may occur before further gains.
